The black rifle market
A collegue and I were recently chatting. He’s looking at picking up his first AR, and he asked me about the market. Here is what I told him. Right now the pipeline is empty, from parts through to rifles. That is driving up prices to astronomical levels. ($1500 for a bone stock Bushmaster M4gery? I don’t think so.)
I think that will die down next year sometime, for two reasons. First, I don’t think that the gun bans are coming right away. Executive orders will be a problem in the short term, and will probably be focused on niche things. Imported parts kits (above and beyond what the ATF has already done), and imported ammo are things that I think are at risk in the short term. I don’t believe that a new AWB is likely before the midterm elections. Obama can’t risk having what happened to Clinton happen to him. He will be under pressure by his base to do something on guns, and it will be interesting to see how he resists that pressure.
So, the panic buying will continue through the end of the year. Then next year, when nothing comes initially, people will relax and stop buying like mad. It will take time for the pipeline to fill, and it will fill from the head back…meaning we will see full rifles first, then as makers large and small refill their inventory, we will see parts and kits reappear. That will take about 6 months or so. (A SWAG on my part. I don’t know how much manufacturing capacity there is out there. I know that certain parts, such as receivers and barrells, are fairly labor intensive as well as fairly concentrated in terms of number of manufacturers.
By summer, the market will start to open up, as rifles become more availalbe. Prices will be higher…in some cases a lot higher, especially for premium brands like Stag and Smith and Wesson, but rifles will be available. The secondary market will bloom, as people realize they don’t need 20 recievers and dealers realize they won’t be able to charge confiscatory prices on things. Gunshow deals should be great next year, as dealers need to free up capital for things they can sell.
So, if you are in the market for an AR, I’d hang in there until the middle of next year.
NY times gets it wrong
The NY times has an article looking at who gets carry permits in New York City.
The article concludes:
The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence has the opposite view. “We support what the vast majority of law enforcement supports: the vast majority of law enforcement in both Wisconsin and Illinois feels that having no issuance of concealed handguns is the way to go,” said Brian Malte, director of state legislation at the Brady Campaign.
Too bad the vast majority of the rest of the nation has right to carry…and the vast majority of the rest of the nation has no issue with folks who carry.
Becoming a gunnie
Breda blogs about her dreams…and realizes she now, offically, is a gunnie.
I remember when I realized I was a gunnie. It was the day I switched from “why would you carry gun” to “why wouldn’t you carry a gun?”..the day that carrying became unremarkable…the day that I felt uncomfortable about not having a carry gun with me.
Welcome to the club, Breda.
Adding a link…
I’m adding a link to the Carolina Shooters Forum in the “Gun Culture” section…I’ve been lurking over there for a bit. It’s a great resource for local shooters.
License to purchase ammo in NC?
From Alphecca. It seems that the Durham City Council is asking the state legislature to consider it…so it probably isn’t a big issue yet. The article says that:
Whitley’s proposal — modeled on existing law in Illinois — would require gun owners to secure a permit from the local sheriff’s office before buying ammunition.
The Illinois law has done a bang-up job reducing crime there, too.
Slow blogging
Slow blogging ahead. End of semester papers due. Oh, and my real job needs attention. And my kid is sick.
Back soon.
Flame-bait
Oh my…Marko manages to offend most of the internet. Cue fanboys in three…two…one…
Why I love surplus rifles
I recently acquired a 98k Mauser. I had been leery of buying surplus guns for a long time…afraid that I would end up with an expensive piece of junk. But I decided that the time was ripe to pick one up. If nothing else, I figured I would have an action that I could use for something more tricked out.
What I ended up with was a Russian capture 98k. For those who don’t know what that means, let me ‘splain. At the end of the war, the Soviets captured a whole mess of German rifles. Russians being Russians, they packed them away in cosmoline, waiting for the time that might be needed to arm peasants. Then, at some point in their history, the Soviets signed a disarmament treaty with the US. The treaty specified a certain number of arms needed to be rendered unfit for military service. The Soviets, a pratcial people, promptly disposed of the front sight hoods, cleaning rods, and action locking screws for these rifles, and declared them de-milled. Everyone left happy. The Russians later sold off them off for surplus.
When I got the gun home, I cleaned off the crusted cosmoline and wiped down the stock with Murphy’s oil soap. I looked up the manufacturing codes. It’s not a rare rifle. The bolt serial number doesn’t match the reciever. There is ugly Soviet electric pencil serial numbers scratched on the top of the bolt, where it was force matched at whatever Soviet arsenal it was refinished. My original intent was to strip it down to the action, and have it be a project gun that I could build up and practice my gunsmithing “skills.”
But the more I held it, and worked the action, and thought about the history behind the gun, I decided I just couldn’t do it. My wife is a history teacher…and this gun was a piece of living history. Did some poor German hold it while shivering on the Eastern front after being sent to his death by that madman in Berlin? Or did it sit in some arms room until being captured and maimed by the Russians and dragged back behind the Iron Curtain? And isn’t that maiming part of history, too, and a monument to silly, feel good treaties?
Firearms are history distilled into an object that you can touch and hold and smell. You can look at the rough workmanship on a ’43 Nagant and really see the effects of the war on a country rushing to produce enough arms to defend itself. Or pick up the weight of a Garand and imagine, in your minds eye, what a trooper ready to hit the ramp on D-Day must have felt.
So, my 98k will go into the safe, unmolested, until some day in the future, when I tell my daughter stories of what her great-grandfather did during the war, at Normandy and beyond. And how her British great-grandmother had two houses bombed out from under her. And let her hold my my guns and touch and feel and smell a part of history.
Sometime you eat the deer…
…and sometime the deer eats you.
I’m not a hunter, but I wouldn’t normally consider deer “dangerous game.” 
Metal prices falling…ammo prices to follow?
The UK Telegraph has an article about the falling price of metals in the wake of the current economic issues. The skyrockting of ammo prices over the last year and a half or so were blamed on A) Fuel prices and B) cost of components. Oil is below $50 a barrell. Copper and lead are down 60%.
Now where is my cheap ammo?
Do your part!
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