The black rifle market

December 10, 2008 by
Filed under: Guns 

A collegue and I were recently chatting.  He’s looking at picking up his first AR, and he asked me about the market.  Here is what I told him.  Right now the pipeline is empty, from parts through to rifles.  That is driving up prices to astronomical levels.  ($1500 for a bone stock Bushmaster M4gery?  I don’t think so.)

I think that will die down next year sometime, for two reasons.  First, I don’t think that the gun bans are coming right away.  Executive orders will be a problem in the short term, and will probably be focused on niche things.  Imported parts kits (above and beyond what the ATF has already done), and imported ammo are things that I think are at risk in the short term.  I don’t believe that a new AWB is likely before the midterm elections.  Obama can’t risk having what happened to Clinton happen to him.  He will be under pressure by his base to do something on guns, and it will be interesting to see how he resists that pressure.

So, the panic buying will continue through the end of the year.  Then next year, when nothing comes initially, people will relax and stop buying like mad.  It will take time for the pipeline to fill, and it will fill from the head back…meaning we will see full rifles first, then as makers large and small refill their inventory, we will see parts and kits reappear.  That will take about 6 months or so.  (A SWAG on my part.  I don’t know how much manufacturing capacity there is out there.  I know that certain parts, such as receivers and barrells, are fairly labor intensive as well as fairly concentrated in terms of number of manufacturers.

By summer, the market will start to open up, as rifles become more availalbe.  Prices will be higher…in some cases a lot higher, especially for premium brands like Stag and Smith and Wesson, but rifles will be available.  The secondary market will bloom, as people realize they don’t need 20 recievers and dealers realize they won’t be able to charge confiscatory prices on things.  Gunshow deals should be great next year, as dealers need to free up capital for things they can sell.

So, if you are in the market for an AR, I’d hang in there until the middle of next year.

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Comments

2 Comments on The black rifle market

  1. Michael Z. Williamson on Wed, 17th Dec 2008 3:06 pm

    2. Concur.

  2. Claude on Sat, 27th Dec 2008 12:10 am

    3. I ordered a Stag Arms Model 2L right after the election and the delay was only 8 weeks. The price is still the same today. I waited just as long for a Rock River Varmint A4 earlier this year and also waited 8 weeks.

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